HMBO News – A Revisão do Mês de Janeiro 2023

HMBO News - Janeiro 2023

HMBO News – A Revisão do Mês de Janeiro 2023

HMBO News

Bem-vindos à HMBO News – Janeiro 2023, a rúbrica mensal onde referimos os 3 principais marcos de cada mês no ecossistema económico e empresarial. A primeiro edição de 2023 anuncia que a maioria dos portugueses está pessimista em relação a 2023, a descida da taxa de inflação pelo terceiro mês consecutivo e o abrandamento do crescimento da produção industrial. 🏭

 

Maioria dos Portugueses Pessimistas em Relação a 2023

Segundo um inquérito da Universidade Católica Portuguesa (UCP) revela que mais de metade dos portugueses estão pessimistas ou muito pessimistas em relação a 2023, com um quinto a afirmar que terá dificuldades em cumprir obrigações financeiras.

A sondagem foi realizada entre 7 e 16 de dezembro através da internet pelo Observatório da Sociedade Portuguesa, da Faculdade de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais da UCP, a 1.001 pessoas entre os 20 e os 69 anos e pretendeu aferir as expectativas e intenções para este ano e os sentimentos face à covid-19.

Os dados recolhidos apontam que:

  • 60,2% dos portuguesas estão pessimistas ou muito pessimistas em relação a 2023, com a maioria a revelar-se preocupada ou muito preocupada com o aumento dos gastos com energia (85,3%), alimentação (82%), combustíveis (76,5%), renda e prestação de empréstimo da casa (63,5%).
  • Um quinto (21,8%) receia ter dificuldades em cumprir as obrigações financeiras assumidas para 2023, como o empréstimo à habitação (42,7%), o crédito pessoal ou ao consumo (35,3%), a renda da casa (31,7%), o pagamento de escolas ou atividades extracurriculares (22%) e o pagamento de empréstimos a familiares ou conhecidos (14,7%).
  • A maioria dos participantes admite que este ano terá de recorrer às suas poupanças para suportar algum custo extraordinário (68,1%) e terá de reduzir o seu consumo (54,4%), uma vez que terá alguma ou muita dificuldade em manter o seu nível de vida (57,1%).
  • Grande parte dos portugueses vai tentar poupar nas refeições fora de casa (75,5%), na compra de roupa (64,7%), em viagens (57,5%) e na aquisição de bens pessoais (50,0%).

 

O estudo de opinião conclui ainda que, “de uma forma geral“, os portugueses parecem ter “um grau de adaptação muito grande” à covid-19, não tendo manifestado elevados graus de medo, desconforto, nervosismo e ansiedade em relação à doença respiratória pandémica.

 

Inflação Abranda em Janeiro

A taxa de inflação homóloga em Portugal abrandou para 8,3% em janeiro, de acordo com os dados provisórios divulgados esta terça-feira pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). Trata-se de um recuo de 1,3 pontos percentuais face a dezembro de 2022.

O abrandamento do Índice de Preços no Consumidor (IPC) deve-se principalmente aos produtos energéticos, com a taxa de variação homóloga “a diminuir também pela terceira vez consecutiva, para 6,8% (20,8% no mês anterior), destacando-se a diminuição de preços da eletricidade”, sublinha o gabinete de estatísticas. Já a taxa relativa aos produtos alimentares não transformados terá acelerado para 18,5% (contra 17,6% em dezembro).

No que toca ao indicador de inflação subjacente, que exclui os produtos alimentares não transformados e energéticos, este terá desacelerado para 7% em janeiro, face ao período homólogo, isto é, um recuo de 0,3 pontos percentuais face aos 7,3% registados em dezembro de 2022. “Estima-se uma variação média nos últimos doze meses de 8,2% (7,8% no mês anterior)”, acrescenta o INE.

Já o Índice Harmonizado de Preços no Consumidor (IHPC), que permite a comparação entre países europeus, terá abrandado para 8,6% face a janeiro de 2022, o que representa também um recuo face a dezembro (era de 9,8%).

 

Crescimento da Produção Industrial Abranda em 2022

Depois de cair 0,2% em novembro, o índice de produção industrial cresceu 2,5% em termos homólogos em dezembro. No acumulado do ano, o índice cresceu 0,4%.

Este crescimento foi “particularmente influenciado pelo agrupamento de energia“, que subiu 2,9 pontos percentuais, “sem o qual o índice agregado diminuiu 0,5%“, refere o INE.

Por sua vez, os agrupamentos de bens de consumo e de bens de investimento contribuíram ambos com 0,7 pontos percentuais para o crescimento do índice. O primeiro agrupamento aumentou 2,2% em termos homólogos e o segundo 4,8%.

O agrupamento de bens intermédios foi o único a registar uma queda, em concreto de 5,4%, em linha com os valores de novembro.

Já numa análise em cadeia, o índice de produção industrial subiu 4,1% em dezembro, dando continuidade ao crescimento de 3,8% em novembro.

No acumulado do último trimestre do ano, o índice aumentou 0,1%, uma subida ligeira face aos 1,7% contabilizados entre julho e setembro. Entre outubro e dezembro o agrupamento de energia registou também a taxa de variação positiva mais intensa, 8,8%.

Por fim, no acumulado do ano passado, a produção industrial aumentou 0,4%, um ganho ligeiro quando comparado com o avanço de 3% em 2021.

O agrupamento de bens de investimento registou a variação média anual positiva mais elevada, 3,4%, enquanto o agrupamento de energia registou a única variação negativa, -5,8%“, esclarece o INE.  O  agrupamento de bens de consumo cresceu 2,8%.

O índice correspondente à secção das indústrias transformadoras cresceu 1,7%, abrandando face ao ganho de 4,1% no ano anterior.

 

Esta foi a edição de janeiro da HMBO News, elaborada a 31/01/2023. A análise do mês de fevereiro voltará a sublinhar os pontos principais no ecossistema económico e empresarial. Não perca! ✅

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