06 Out HMBO News – A Revisão do Mês de Setembro
HMBO News
Bem-vindos à HMBO News – Setembro, a rúbrica mensal da onde referimos os 3 principais marcos de cada mês no ecossistema económico e empresarial. A edição deste mês anuncia a recessão alemã, o declínio do euro e os preços da produção industrial em Portugal. 📉
Recessão Alemã: Uma Queda Anunciada
Em junho, a Alemanha previa uma crescimento económico na ordem dos 3,7% para 2023. Três meses depois, antecipa uma contração económica de 0,4%. Sendo o país governado por Olaf Scholz o motor da economia europeia, prevê-se uma recessão europeia no próximo ano. Em causa está o forte aumento dos custos de energia na sequência da guerra na Ucrânia, que extingue as hipóteses de recuperação após os confinamentos durante a pandemia.
Os dados são do Instituto de Pesquisa Económica (IPE), ao afirmar que o período mais duro para os consumidores na Alemanha será o primeiro trimestre do próximo ano, quando a inflação chegar aos 11%, devido a um ajustamento dos preços por parte dos fornecedores de energia para responder aos elevados custos da procura.
Consequentemente, o poder de compra das famílias deverá diminuir, com o pacote de ajuda governamental a ficar aquém de as compensar. “A perda de poder de compra, medida pelo declínio dos salários reais per capita este ano e no próximo em cerca de 3% cada um, é mais elevada do que em qualquer altura desde que o atual sistema de contas nacionais foi introduzido em 1970″, afirmou Wollmershaeuser, o chefe das previsões económicas do IPE.
Partindo do pressuposto de que existirá gás suficiente no inverno, o IPE prevê que os aumentos dos preços deverão enfraquecer gradualmente ao longo de 2023, enquanto os preços da energia começarão a diminuir o mais tardar na primavera.
Contudo, os institutos também calcularam um cenário extremo em que há um inverno excessivamente frio, levando a uma escassez de gás. Nesse caso, os peritos estimam que em 2023 a desaceleração económica poderá atingir 7,9% e a recessão continuaria em 2024 com um declínio do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 4,2%.
No meio de tudo isto, um fator positivo é uma certa estabilidade no mercado de trabalho onde, apesar da queda da procura de mão-de-obra, as empresas – face à escassez de pessoal – estão a fazer esforços para manter os seus empregados.
Euro em Mínimos Históricos
As perspetivas económicas são pouco animadoras na área do euro, que tocou em 0,9771 dólares, o valor mais baixo em mais de 20 anos. A descida ocorreu depois da divulgação de indicadores económicos fracos da Alemanha e da Zona Euro que apontavam para uma recessão. Em contracorrente está o dólar, que está a beneficiar da subida dos juros pela Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos (Fed).
Face ao dólar, a trajetória tendencial do euro tem sido descendente desde janeiro
O dólar manteve a sua força face ao euro depois de o diferencial de taxas de juro entre os EUA e a Zona Euro ter aumentado, após a Fed ter aumentado as taxas de juro em 75 pontos base para entre 3% e 3,25% e ter dado a entender que irá aumentar ainda mais as taxas este ano e em 2023. As taxas de juro do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) estão atualmente em 1,25%.
A atividade da Zona Euro contraiu-se em setembro pelo terceiro mês consecutivo e mais acentuadamente do que nos meses anteriores, o que, juntamente com a deterioração dos indicadores de encomendas e expectativas, aponta para novos declínios de atividade no futuro.
O índice PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) de atividade na Zona Euro da S&P Global, que agora integra o IHS Markit, publicado esta sexta-feira, foi de 48,2 pontos, menos sete décimas do que em agosto e novamente abaixo dos 50 pontos que separam o crescimento da contração. A contração de setembro foi a maior desde janeiro de 2021 e foi impulsionada pelo setor industrial, que no seu quarto mês consecutivo de declínio de atividade marcou a contração mais rápida desde maio de 2020.
A confiança dos consumidores caiu na Zona Euro em setembro para um nível recorde devido a preocupações com o aumento do custo de vida. Além disso, as tensões com a Rússia devido à guerra na Ucrânia estão a levar os investidores a evitar riscos e a comprar dólares, considerados uma moeda segura em tempos de crise.
Como Vão os Preços na Produção Industrial em Portugal?
Os preços na produção industrial subiram 4% em julho na Zona Euro, quando comparado com o mês anterior, tendo Portugal sido o país onde os preços mais recuaram. Já no conjunto da União Europeia, segundo os dados divulgados pela Eurostat, os preços na produção industrial aceleraram 3,7% face a junho.
Já comparado com julho de 2021, os preços subiram 37,9% na Zona Euro e 37,8% na União Europeia.
A energia voltou a ser o setor que mais contribuiu para o aumento dos custos em julho. Face a junho deste ano, os preços na produção industrial aumentaram 9% na energia, 1,2% nos bens de consumo não-duradouros, 0,9% nos bens de consumo duradouro, 0,8% nos bens de capital e 0,1% bens intermediários. “Excluindo o setor da energia os preços na indústria aumentaram 0,6%“, refere o instituto.
Os maiores aumentos mensais dos preços na produção industrial verificaram-se na Irlanda (26,1%), na Hungria (9,4%) e na Bulgária (8%). Em sentido contrário, está Portugal, que foi o estado-membro onde os custos mais recuaram (-1,5%) seguido pela Suécia (-1,2%) e pelo Luxemburgo (-0,9%). Já em termos homólogos, os preços na produção industrial subiram em todos os Estados-Membros, tendo a maior subida anual ocorrido na Roménia (67,4%).
Esta foi a edição de setembro da HMBO News, elaborada a 06/10/2022. A análise do mês de outubro sublinhará os pontos principais no ecossistema económico e empresarial do mês que marca o início do último trimestre de 2022. Não perca! ✅
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